After drama in the capital last night, our man in Spain, Phil Kitromilides, believes the price of 10/11 for a Barcelona victory is worthy of investment
While the nature of the defeat suffered by Barcelona at the Allianz Arena last week sent shockwaves around the footballing world, those who have followed the Catalans closely this season may not have been so surprised to see them concede four goals to one of the most dynamic sides of recent years.
The Blaugrana have had problems in defense this season, with questions over form and fitness being asked at one stage or another about all their first-choice defenders.
Thankfully for them, they have more often than not been able to score their way out of trouble, and the Leo Messi’s unrelenting ability to score goals is a large part of why they are on the verge of being crowned Spanish champions.
Barring the greatest comeback in the history of the tournament though, Barca though are heading out of the Champions League this evening, yet that should not deter punters from investing in the price of 10/11 (1.91) offered by Paddy Power for them to win the match this evening.
Bayern for their part are offered at 14/5 (3.75) with the draw available at the same price, yet the wise money should go on a home win this evening.
Barca are unbeaten at the Camp Nou in their last 22 Champions League matches, winning 17 of those encounters.
They know they need a huge performance to have any chance of even thinking about a comeback, and if they get the start they did in the round of 16 when they beat Milan 4-0 the Camp Nou might just start to believe.
Bayern know they can lose pretty heavily and still advance and we saw earlier in the tournament how they took their foot of the gas against Arsenal in the second leg following a convincing first leg victory.
Presumably the Bavarians have learned from that experience, yet nevertheless the price of 10/11 (1.91) for Barcelona to win a home match regardless of the situation or the opposition is simply too good to resist.
Central to any potential Barca victory will of course be Leo Messi, yet given his astonishing goal scoring record this season the prices of his getting on the scoresheet are understandably small.
He is offered at 3/1 (4.00) to score first but a better value bet could well be to back him to score from outside the box at anytime at 5/1 (6.00).
Sign up with Paddy Power for up to £250 in free bets and back Phil’s selections for this match
Phil Kitromilides is a football journalist and TV presenter in Madrid. You can also follow Phil on Twitter.